Palin Strikes Out or Bows Out?

Andrea Mitchell says Palin has told close advisers she is bowing out of politics completely. She has been an unreliable source on other big issues--but who knows. Charles Krauthammer said her speech reminded him of Nixon's 1962 "you won't have Nixon to kick around any more". As the National Review's "K-Lo" says, "you can never predict in politics".

There is plenty of conventional, and unconventional, wisdom that says it is all over for Palin. The overwhelming view is this puts a stake in the vampire's heart---her---and it was inexplicably self inflicted. As of July 3rd, the pundits were in conundrum mode as to why, and in almost unanimous agreement as to its negative impact on her political future. Democrat comments don't count. Nothing would have ever changed their mind about Palin. In fact, one of the more bizarre statements came from the DNC. Usually, when the other side is self destructing, you leave them alone without interference.

It is her supporters' comments which are of great interest. There are two ways to look at her resignation yesterday. I will call these ways "intrinsic" and "extrinsic". For simplicity's sake, "intrinsic" means was her decision moral, as in "did it break the promise she made to the Alaskan people"? The "extrinsic" means, "how does it effect her chances to further her political career"?. The overwhelming discussion, as usual, was on the horse race aspect of the decision. Again, I am discussing her supporters' comments. She could have been Mother Theresa with a night job as Batman and she still would have been mocked by Democrats as erratic for wearing two different sexually suggestive costumes.

I disagree with most of the comments on the "horse race". This was simply the first at bat (she used basketball, I use baseball analogies) in a 9 inning game. The pundits called it a strikeout, and I am sure if a poll were taken Monday, her ratings will have declined marginally, although her campaign says there was a tick-up in contributions upon announcement. But as Mark Levin said; "She is running for president. Get used to it". My title also is "double entendre". She is also "striking out on her own". Assuming there is not another "shoe to drop", as many speculate, she will soon be on the road. But first let me discuss the intrinsic argument against the move.

THE INTRINSIC ARGUMENT

I think the concept of doing what is right, for its own sake without regard to future advancement, is a an idea that few take seriously in politics. I confess to having had to think about it, even to get the point. A friend of mine, currently engaged in Republican politics, and who thought Palin was a leading but imperfect candidate, felt her resignation was a betrayal of her constituency. He actually believes politicians owe their constituency the full term. He considers this a sacred trust. He really disliked what she did.

Think about that. We have become so jaded, we either assume "all politicians" are corruptible; or "if you can fake sincerity" you have it made. We make excuses constantly for our favorites. This critique says nothing about whether it was "good politics" or "bad politics". It was immoral politics, so such commentaries do not matter. I am sure few readers think this way about politics. All the comments on her quitting related to its political consequences. Of course, intrinsic critiques imply consequences too. My friend could care less whether everyone else in the political field practices this or not. As it relates to his criticism of Palin, it was all about politics as usual. She did it to advance her career; even as others thought it was a disastrous political move. These are not mutually exclusive concepts. Call it "immoral and stupid". The implications of such a view are important. The standard this puts on all politicians would be high. If the public took it seriously and held them accountable for every breach they make, we would have less reason to be cynical about our political class. But, "we the people" are often the enablers. And "they the media" are the instigators. Morality and commitment are such a quaint idea in our highly sophisticated post-modern world.

I am highly sympathetic toward this interpretation of her actions. And, I want to look at her actions through the lens of "was it the right thing to do"? My friend's argument had a corollary, which he is firm on, but which I believe has a "logical" weakness. Running for higher office, while hanging on to your lower office if you lose, I think is not in their constituents interests. He disagrees. Lieberman first got national attention for this in 2000. But Obama, McCain, Kerry, Palin, and Biden all did this. This is accepted practice, particularly if you are Senator. Plus sitting Governors run for office all the time. Is this "moral" or fair to their constituents?  I don't think so. You either owe your constituency your full commitment, or you don't. If you "just get out" like Palin, it questions, perhaps, your fitness for future office. But if you get out to run for higher office, I think resigning is the more honest move. In any case, a commitment is a commitment. It is either right in all cases or wrong. But as between staying in office and running for higher office versus resigning and running for higher office, I lean the latter way.

In any case, it is unclear my argument applies to Palin. She has not announced running for office. She has announced helping candidates and supporting publicly conservative politicians. Is this the same? Not really. Yet her circumstances are also different. She is far away in Alaska. She also couldn't do this as a sitting Governor. Every time she engaged in almost anything related to actions outside the Governor's office, ethics charges were brought against her. 15 so far, all dismissed--costing taxpayers millions and her $500k. This was severe harassment and pretty unprecedented. The first charges were initiated by an Obama operative in the Alaska legislature in 2008 as soon as she was named VP candidate. Among the many speculations is there is a "big one" coming down the pike. Or that her book deal itself would be made into an ethics charge.

My friend will mock me for my conclusion and accuse me of hero worship. Palin stated she was unable either to perform her duties and help on the "larger stage". That is factually a true statement in my opinion. But my friend's view is she should stay. Too bad, so to speak, as she made her sacred commitment already. Her view is her celebrity, ethics harassment, and lightning rod status, made her governing inefficient, let alone enable her to engage in other political activities. She was the story always. Stephen Moore, a critic of her resignation, called her the "5th Beatle". Plus it took a pretty strong toll on her family. When various media outlets go unattacked for mocking her down syndrome baby and teenage daughters, and she then gets attacked as "whining" about it--by republicans--it is safe to say the level of attacks reached new levels, even for politics.

She pronounced in her speech that all her major initiatives have been well under way in Alaska. And that the people in Alaska are better off with a full time Governor who will not be so in the national spot light being the issue on every policy. Basically she is saying, her status as a national figure hurts Alaska if she remains Governor. Self serving?  Perhaps. But everyone says it is a stupid political move. So the word "erratic" gets pulled out of the file, recalling shoe buying binges and wet bath towel meetings from "inside McCain" unnamed staffers. It is more true that her ability to campaign and engage in fund raising from Alaska is severely restricted as Governor.  She made that decision. I think her actions in the next year or two have to be observed before the final judgment is made on the "morality" of her actions.

Putting aside one's view of her actions, her speech was mostly coherent, even if self rationalizing. It did have some "whine" leakage. But I could not see the teleprompters.

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THE EXTRINSIC ARGUMENT

Mark Levin has not weighed in fully. Bill Kristol has commented more fully. They are both seemingly supportive. My last essay Vanity Fair: Hot for Teacher was clear in its assertion that many Republican establishment figures were against her already. This does not help matters. But it is not the establishment that matters. It is the voters. It is a fair guarantee that she will be welcome to help out in many campaigns this Fall. If she can draw crowds, she will be invited. Just ask Georgia Senator Saxby Chamblis. Kristol said "Everybody I've talked to thinks it's a little crazy," Mr Kristol said. "But maybe not. What is she going to accomplish in the next year as governor? Every time she left the state she got criticized for neglecting her duties. "She'll take a little hit for leaving the job early, no question about it. But if she writes this book and … educates herself on some issues, that's good."

People forget how Reagan was viewed in the 1970s. Steve Hayward pulls out some great political obituaries of Reagan over at The Corner on National Review.  Victor David Hansen says aim for 2016. Katheryn Lopez says this will give her time to not merely be on the defensive. Jonah Goldberg thinks it is a big mistake. Charles Krauthammer didn't really ever think she had the right stuff. This makes her look even more erratic. Mark Steyn, long time Palin supporter, says "Occam's Razor" leans toward her  just "cutting bait". He says

"In states far from the national spotlight, politics still attracts normal people.....Then suddenly you get the call from Washington......But nobody said it would mean a mainstream network comedy host doing statutory rape gags about your 14-year old daughter. You've got a special-needs kid and a son in Iraq and a daughter who's given you your first grandchild in less than ideal circumstances. That would be enough for most of us. But the special-needs kid and the daughter and most everyone else you love are a national joke, and the PC enforcers are entirely cool with it.....National office will dwindle down to the unhealthily single minded (Clinton, Obama), the timeserving emirs of Incumbistan (Biden, McCain) and dynastic heirs (Bush). Our loss".

Republican Amy Holmes says "No way around it. She has just labeled herself a "quitter." Someone who doesn't finish what she started. What in the world is wrong with Republican governors? One self-absorbed politician after the next. Governors: "It's not all about you!".

Rich Lowery said "I think I have pretty well-established credentials when it comes to being charmed by Sarah Palin, but that statement, as a statement, was simply terrible. Rambling and not at all persuasive as an argument for her decision."

One thing they all missed, although it was implicit. It was Friday afternoon before a holiday weekend. The ultimate sleepy time for news. To get attention on that day is like trying to run a 4 minute mile up hill. Perhaps she did time it to minimize attention, although I doubt it. The amount of attention she got was huge. She has the one thing all pols wish they had---the ability to get instant attention. It has to be converted to an ability to persuade people. She has done that for her base as well as others. Her negatives with women and outside the Republican party are high. But if she wants it, she still has a shot--deserved or not. Whether she can win with it, depends on too many things to recount. But it can be done.

As some have also said---why even bother? She could probably pull in millions a year with a talk show. And maybe she does that gig for a while. Let someone else take on the Obama love machine in 2012 and wait till 2016. The Beatles were split up for 10 years and the public still clamored for their reunion appearance. That option is there now and 10 years from now. 

Why guess? Because that is what we all do. We can guess, but we cannot predict.

Comments

[Bruce]

If she were indeed seeking the Republican nomination in 2012, she would have 4 major and immediate claims on her time. 1. Governor of Alaska 2. Travel all over the US, but from a home base that is incredibly remote 3. Really get up to speed from a policy standpoint so she doesn't have another Couric interview 4. Be a Mom to 5 children, one of whom is a special needs child.

There is no earthly way she could do all that. I think she has more energy than almost anyone I have ever seen in politics, but even she couldn't handle the load. So I think this move was designed to give her flexibility, even though she may not yet have decided what she will do with that flexibility. As you say, she might try to make some money for awhile and see if that lifestyle suits her.

I think she has great political instincts and she knows that 11 or 15 years from now she will be old news. She knows she has to strike while the iron is hot, which means for her it is 2012 if Bambi looks vulnerable (or 2016 if he doesn't) or never.

I hope she stays in the game, if for no other reason, she exposes the meanness and hypocrisy of the left. Ultimately, that will rebound to the left's detriment. Even if she never becomes the nominee I want her to be a threat to be for a long time so that the left can continue its mean-spirited ways.

[Law of the Bad Premise]

Great comment Bruce. Said it better than I could.
Mike

[Kathy Boyle]

It's like I said to my sixteen year old granddaughter, "What type of people do we have in Washington and the media that look upon a woman with five children, that is still married to her young sweetheart of a fella, that gets along with and actually respects her parents, that has lively discussions with her family on a variety of topics, that is beautiful and slightly quirky, and that refuses to put to death her unborn child because it isn't 'perfect', as some kind of demon that must at all costs be destroyed. Really child, think about that, what kind of monsters are these people, and who is more like you and I, Sarah Palin or them. Now you know why they look upon her the way they do, and why she is such a threat. Our message to those in Washinton and the media in 2010-12...."You Are Fired"!

[Brad Schwartze]

Bruce, let me expand just a little on this. Though I am a Denver resident, I am originally a native of South Dakota. Small (populated) states NEED their Governors, US Senators, and US Representatives to be at work Full Time. They need them to help them work their way through the various bureaucracies and to help them get more federal aid any way they can get it. A lot of the Intellectuals on BOTH sides of the fence despise that, but it is what it is (unless those coastal elites want to send parts of their economies to Sioux Falls).

The major reasons why both Tom Daschle and George McGovern (as well as Larry Pressler and Jim Abdnor, but not so much) LOST attempts at 4th terms for US Senate since 1980 is because both Senators got caught serving two masters. Palin (along with her apparent benefactors) is engaging in one of the riskiest political moves in US History. It's also the best move; she just freed her people from the awful circumstance of watching their governor having to serve two (or more!) masters.

[Individualist]

With all due respect I don't blame Sarah Palin. She has had a porn video made about her "Who's Nailin Pailin" and Letterman is not the first to joke of raping her or her daughters. Bob Ciamboli of Playboy dis ths as well. The responses from groups like Now are to bame conservatives for it.

There have been frivolous lawsuit after frivolous lawsuit clogging things up and given the maniac nutjobs in the democratic party there were probably criedible threats on her life and her family.

That the democratic party was directly responsible for this is not even questionalble. They have devolved so far into slime that the only way to stop it will be violence. The Democrats will keep doing this along with the media because no one has any ethics whatsoever.

We are coming to Julius Ceasar moment in American Politics. The only possible way to deal with this is quite frankly knives on the Senate Floor. This is something I don't want and will not have the capacity to engage in however this does not change the fact that the corruption of the main stream media is so complete that there is no civil way to stop this activity. It saddens me greatly since the net result for the Romans was the loss of the Republic. This scares me!

[bruce nahin]

Guys sarah is not going away. She as now taken the "high road" .Obama missed two of his tree and a half years in office running for Pres, Mitt missed about 500 of his last 700 days as gov doing the same thing...they dare not call her a quitter...In my mind they too quit...only they kept getting paychecks. Obama and Biden too did not fulfill their terms, nor would McCain( of for that matter Palin) and things turned out differently. Nor would Lisa Murkowski if she wins as governor(for her father's former seat). ONLY SARAH is being honest. She cant run and give Alaska the time they need..so critics move on- read what she said today- doesnt seem like a quitter to me
Happy 4th of July from Alaska! On this Independence Day, I am so very proud of all those who have chosen to serve our great nation and I honor their selflessness and the sacrifices of their families, too. If I may, I would like to take a moment to reflect on the last 24 hours and share my thoughts with you. First, I want to thank you for your support and hard work on the values we share. Those values led me to the decision my family and I made. Yesterday, my family and I announced a decision that is in Alaska's best interest and it always feels good to do what is right. We have accomplished more during this one term than most governors do in two - and I am proud of the great team that helped to build these wonderful successes. Energy independence and national security, fiscal restraint, smaller government, and local control have been my priorities and will remain my priorities. For months now, I have consulted with friends and family, and with the Lieutenant Governor, about what is best for our wonderful state. I even made a few administrative changes over that course in time in preparation for yesterday. We have accomplished so much and there's much more to do, but my family and I determined after prayerful consideration that sacrificing my title helps Alaska most. And once I decided not to run for re-election, my decision was that much easier - I've never been one to waste time or resources. Those who know me know this is the right decision and obvious decision at that, including Senator John McCain. I thank him for his kind, insightful comments. The response in the main stream media has been most predictable, ironic, and as always, detached from the lives of ordinary Americans who are sick of the "politics of personal destruction". How sad that Washington and the media will never understand; it's about country. And though it's honorable for countless others to leave their positions for a higher calling and without finishing a term, of course we know by now, for some reason a different standard applies for the decisions I make. But every American understands what it takes to make a decision because it's right for all, including your family. I shared with you yesterday my heartfelt and candid reasons for this change; I've never thought I needed a title before one's name to forge progress in America. I am now looking ahead and how we can advance this country together with our values of less government intervention, greater energy independence, stronger national security, and much-needed fiscal restraint. I hope you will join me. Now is the time to rebuild and help our nation achieve greatness! God bless you! And I look forward to making a difference - with you! Sarah

[Kerry]

I think the point being missed (or, rather, being treated as so insane as to not be possible) is that this is a move of good stewardship. Palin looked around, saw the drain of resources that her very presence in office constituted for the state and people of Alaska, assessed her Lt. Governor's ability to carry on, and did the right thing. Now the Alaska governor's office can do business without having to field questions from Time, Newsweek, and Vanity Fair, without having to spend huge chunks of the day copying state documents to give to nuisance investigators, and without worrying that some ordinary thing that happens during the Governor's day (like freeing a turkey at Thanksgiving) is going to blow up into an incident requiring national unwanted attention.

Instead, if Palin wants to make a speech, have an opinion, spar with a talk show host, write a book, or support another political candidate, she can do it as herself, and take the heat HERSELF, without the state of Alaska having to take the fire.

This is the single most UNselfish act I have ever seen a politician make. I have written about this over on In Defense of Liberty at http://libertyfight.blogspot.com/2009/07/in-praise-of-sarah-palin.html . Basically, I think she is Doing the Right Thing, something other politicians should consider. Palin has done nothing wrong, but her very being is a drain on her state's resources, so she's willing to step aside.

Other politicians--Mark Sanford, John Ensign, David Patterson--engaged in bad behavior, but REFUSE to step down, despite their effect on the people they were put in office to SERVE.

Finally, a politician who knows she is not indispensable. For that alone, she should be elected President.

[Law of the Bad Premise]

Kerry
Agree with you. Was basically the point I was trying tp make. Also presenting the honest "other side"---but disagreeing with it when all was said and done. But still, we need to see what she does with her new freedom.

[Frederik]

I am sick and tired of all these "Palin is a quitter", "she failed to furfill her duty as a governor", "she was eclected for four years" and other similar garbage the drive bys and political establishment is throwing at her. What about Hussein? he served for two years in the US Senate and spend the other two campaigning. Was no one in Chicago and the media concerned he is failing to furfill his duties as a senator to the people of Chicago and Illinois??? Why didn't he resign since he and Clinton spent most of the time campaignin
I am also sick and tired of the GOp establishment. They want our candidate to be more a Mother Theresa, while the racist and bigot Democrats can get away with a narissistic womanizer like Clinton, incompetent idiot like Carter and narcissitic communist like Obama, who on top of all sat for twenty years in a racist church and called its racist pastor his "spiritual adviser". He sat on numerous boards with domestic terrorist Ayers and claimed he didn't know anything about him. He bought his mansion from a slumlord Rezko and again he ddin't know anything. Do libs think we are retard??

[Cool Guy]

leave it to mike to compare Sarah Palin to the Beatles....haha...love it.

[James Baring]

I am currently temping at the Associated Press and the other temp on this assignment is trying to break into the film production world. Today he showed me a short youtube video he produced about Sarah Palin. I think it's hilarious and it made me immediately think of your most recent blog about the former Governor. Below please find the link to the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHR5Q0L0bXk

After watching the video, I went back and reread this blog posting. Though the video is obviously intended to be more of a comedy skit than a political commentary I think it intrinsically agrees with one of the fundamental points you make in your posting. " [Sarah Palin] has the one thing all pols wish they had---the ability to get instant attention." That sentence really strikes to the heart of the whole Palin matter, no matter what one may think of her, she has successfully, though perhaps not intentionally, found a very conspicuous place in the national eye. That point really resonated with me because people probably know (and maybe care?) more about Palin than perhaps any other political figure aside from OBAMA.

If Palin can figure out a way to successfully wield the media attention she commands this "resignation" could prove to be a very savvy strategic political maneuver. As you said, we can only guess what will happen but I'd put money on the fact that Palin 2.0 is going to be, in the words of Daftpunk, "Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger." Personally, I don't think much of Palin but I do respect her potential.